The Trade Plan
We are looking for a deviation between 0.3% from the forecasted figure of 2.4%. Therefore if we get a 2.7% on the third quarter GDP, it would be US Dollar positive. We will BUY USD/JPY. However, if we get a 2.1% release or worse, then we would be BUYING EURUSD. We'll be looking to trade this release based on my Retracement Trading Method; since this is a high impact release, strong market volatility is expected immediately after the release.

The Market
According to a medium forecast of 68 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, the majority agree that today's Adv. GDP for Q3 2011 will be around 2.4%, which is a jump from previous 1.3% of release (in Q2) and a sharp change of opinion as recent analyses warned of an impending double-dip recession and now to a stronger than expected growth.

With sharp plunge in stocks caused by European debt crisis in Q3, offsetting the much better than expected consumer spendings, the jobs market remained relatively the same, unable to improve the troubling unemployment rate. However, it is with very little doubt that the momentum has been building and most analysts agree that for the very least, it will last through the end of the year.


With Fed Bernanke still on the fence for further QE measures, on a stronger release should weaken the USD in the long-term as traders move away from the safety of US Treasuries into riskier assets.

Additional Thoughts
With Adv. GDP being the first GDP release of the three, it is usually the most volatile GDP release with the highest potential of a surprise number. Because the impact of GDP on future monetary policy, this event has the potential of changing both the long-term and short-term trend of USD. It's definitely an event worth trading.

DEFINITION:
“GDP, which is defined (from wikipedia) as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP number has a direct effect on the Interest rate of the currency, it is one of the news indicators that affects FOMC's decision directly.”