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This expectation is based on Steven's statements on June 15th that rates will climb “at some point” and will depend on July's CPI. Recently growth in China has slowed down with PMI dropping to 57 from 61.9 and this is Australia's trading partner. The Australian Dollar has fallen today as Retail Sales and Building Approvals showed decline. The measure of annual inflation fell below the top range of the RBA's target in June as costs for fuel and clothing dropped. Recently there have been some drops in commodity prices, many traders are saying the RBA is being too optimistic. The RBA forecast growth at 4.25% and CPI at 3.25% and 3% for Core. Fulltime Jobs also fell by 22,000 in May after dropping 57,200 in April, the biggest two-month decline in more than two years. Many consider this a temporary adjustment as the economy become more mining focused. According to 30-day interbank cash-rate futures, there is a 10 percent chance of a 25-basis- point rate cut in August and a 30 percent chance in October. There is unlikely to be any spike on any change in rates. However the accompanying statement could cause some volatility, if the RBA's forecasts to growth and inflation mentioned above are changed, or if any of the issues mentioned are focused on ie drop in jobs, CPI, PMI in china, any worry about Greece causing a lehman's type market meltdown.

If they hike rates, AUD/USD 6A should rally 70-100 pips/ticks. If they cut rates, AUD/USD 6A should sell off 70-100 pips/ticks.
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04:28 GBP Services PMI (53.5 exp, 53.8 prior, 53.0 to 54.5 range)


This is a key indicator of economic health for the UK's economy. Recently the UK has seen a string of negative releases and negative sentiment is starting to get entrenched, the Sterling is at lows against many currencies, and it even dropped versus the US Dollar as other pairs made gains against it. Since January's negative reading, this indicator has been making gains, however it has dropped off in the last 2 months. Last month was only -0.4 lower and not very significant, there was little price reaction. However in May it was -1.7 lower and cable dropped 40 pips in the 1st minute and
then retraced, heading higher unto the US session. While some could have made some pips on this, what is not too good about it is the lack of continuation after the initial spike. For traders who might experience some slippage it is best to get a deviation where the price move continues beyond the level seen in the initial spike. Obviously April's massive 4.6 deviation continued, as did March's smaller -1.1 deviation. So we can see a case where a continuation occurred on even a smaller deviation. This focus on this release is somewhat heightened due to the concern raised recently by the string of bad economic news from the UK and the weak sterling relative to other pairs. Therefore a reading below 52.0 should see the pound gain momentum towards the 1.5910 level, while any figure above 54 will give the Pound some breathing space. There is the possibility of the pound weakening into the release with markets anticipating disappointment. There is also the possibility of a rebound in this number as the last readings included holiday periods and this will make up for those periods.

-If it is 55.0% or higher, GBP/USD should rally 35-55 pips
-If it is 52.0% or lower, GBP/USD should drop 35-55 pips
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DailyFX System Trading Signals –Breakout2showed strong performance across several currency pairs on continued volatility, and a bounce in volatility expectations supports further Breakout trades in Euro and Swiss Franc pairs. Range2was relatively quiet through the same stretch, but we continue to favor the slow-moving strategy as certain pairs remain range-bound. Strong trend percentiles for the US Dollar suggest that Momentum1 and Momentum2 could likewise produce strong trade ideas amidst favorable market conditions.



To gain a greater understanding of all six trading systems, view my recent presentation on SSI and the trading signals on our FXCM Digital Expo page.

Volatility expectations have spiked higher on early-week moves in the euro and US Dollar, but our volatility indices remain stuck in their 12-month downtrend. It will be critical to watch whether we see a sustained shift in market conditions. Else we will need to re-evaluate trading biases on a regular basis and change trading styles accordingly.


Written by David Rodríguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com, drodriguez@dailyfx.com

To be added to this author's distribution list, send an e-mail subject line “Distribution list” to drodriguez@dailyfx.com

Definitions

Range Strategy – The benchmark range trading system shows the hypothetical performance of a simple Relative Strength Index strategy on 60-minute EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, USDCAD, AUDUSD, and NZDUSD pairs. It sells when the 14-period RSI falls below 70 and buys when it crosses above 30. No other trading rules are used. Hypothetical results are generated using FXCM Strategy Trader.

Trend Strategy – The benchmark trend trading system shows the hypothetical performance of a simple Moving Average Crossover strategy on 60-minute EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, USDCAD, AUDUSD, and NZDUSD pairs. It buys the currency pair when the 50-period Simple Moving Average crosses above the 100-period and 200-period averages. It sells when the 50-period crosses below the 100-period and 200-period averages. No other trading rules are used.


Breakout Strategy – The benchmark breakout trading system shows the hypothetical performance of a simple Channel Breakout strategy on 60-minute EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, USDCAD, AUDUSD, and NZDUSD pairs. It will set a buy order at the highest high of the previous 20 bars plus one pip and a sell order at the lowest low of the previous 20 bars minus one pip. No other trading rules are used.

Volatility Percentile – The higher the number, the more likely we are to see strong movements in price. This number tells us where current implied volatility levels stand in relation to the past 90 days of trading. We have found that implied volatilities tend to remain very high or very low for extended periods of time. As such, it is helpful to know where the current implied volatility level stands in relation to its medium-term range.

Trend – This indicator measures trend intensity by telling us where price stands in relation to its 90 trading-day range. A very low number tells us that price is currently at or near monthly lows, while a higher number tells us that we are near the highs. A value at or near 50 percent tells us that we are at the middle of the currency pair's monthly range.

Range High – 90-day closing high.

Range Low – 90-day closing low.

Last – Current market price.

Bias – Based on the above criteria, we assign the more likely profitable strategy for any given currency pair. A highly volatile currency pair (Volatility Percentile very high) suggests that we should look to use Breakout strategies. More moderate volatility levels and strong Trend values make Momentum trades more attractive, while the lowest Vol Percentile and Trend indicator figures make Range Trading the more attractive strategy.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES IS MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION.

OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. The FXCM group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance contained in the trading signals, or in any accompanying chart analyses.

DailyFX Individual Currency Pair Conditions and Trading Strategy Bias



DailyFX System Trading Signals –Breakout2had a strong week amidst sharp swings in key currencies, but a sharp drop in volatility expectations dims outlook for the our best-performing strategy. It seems prudent to switch to Range2 across key currency pairs as most signs point to slower price movements. Momentum2 likewise remains attractive for key currency pairs, as the US Dollar remains in an extended downtrend and further losses seem fairly likely. Traders should remain cautious ahead of late-week trade, as the US Nonfarm Payrolls report is quite likely to force sharp moves across key pairs despite low volatility expectations.



To gain a greater understanding of all six trading systems, view my recent presentation on SSI and the trading signals on our FXCM Digital Expo page.

Volatility expectations remain well within their long-term downtrend and point to slower moves ahead. Since early 2010, vols have been on a fairly steady downtrend that has largely coincided with declines in the safe-haven US Dollar. 3-month and 1-week volatility expectations have turned lower almost exactly at their falling trendlines. We have little choice but to favor slower moves ahead.


Written by David Rodríguez, Quantitative Strategist for

DailyFX.com, drodriguez@dailyfx.com

To be added to this author's distribution list, send an e-mail subject line “Distribution list” to drodriguez@dailyfx.com

Definitions


Range Strategy – The benchmark range trading system shows the hypothetical performance of a simple Relative Strength Index strategy on 60-minute EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, USDCAD, AUDUSD, and NZDUSD pairs. It sells when the 14-period RSI falls below 70 and buys when it crosses above 30. No other trading rules are used. Hypothetical results are generated using FXCM Strategy Trader.

Trend Strategy – The benchmark trend trading system shows the hypothetical performance of a simple Moving Average Crossover strategy on 60-minute EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, USDCAD, AUDUSD, and NZDUSD pairs. It buys the currency pair when the 50-period Simple Moving Average crosses above the 100-period and 200-period averages. It sells when the 50-period crosses below the 100-period and 200-period averages. No other trading rules are used.

Breakout Strategy – The benchmark breakout trading system shows the hypothetical performance of a simple Channel Breakout strategy on 60-minute EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, USDCAD, AUDUSD, and NZDUSD pairs. It will set a buy order at the highest high of the previous 20 bars plus one pip and a sell order at the lowest low of the previous 20 bars minus one pip. No other trading rules are used.

Volatility Percentile – The higher the number, the more likely we are to see strong movements in price. This number tells us where current implied volatility levels stand in relation to the past 90 days of trading. We have found that implied volatilities tend to remain very high or very low for extended periods of time. As such, it is helpful to know where the current implied volatility level stands in relation to its medium-term range.

Trend – This indicator measures trend intensity by telling us where price stands in relation to its 90 trading-day range. A very low number tells us that price is currently at or near monthly lows, while a higher number tells us that we are near the highs. A value at or near 50 percent tells us that we are at the middle of the currency pair's monthly range.

Range High – 90-day closing high.

Range Low – 90-day closing low.

Last – Current market price.

Bias – Based on the above criteria, we assign the more likely profitable strategy for any given currency pair. A highly volatile currency pair (Volatility Percentile very high) suggests that we should look to use Breakout strategies. More moderate volatility levels and strong Trend values make Momentum trades more attractive, while the lowest Vol Percentile and Trend indicator figures make Range Trading the more attractive strategy.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES IS MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION.

OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. The FXCM group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance contained in the trading signals, or in any accompanying chart analyses.